Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-14.8#338
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#274
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-11.2#342
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#277
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 6.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 7.1% 38.1% 6.9%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 66.5% 35.3%
Conference Champion 11.6% 37.8% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 2.3% 7.6%
First Four3.0% 6.2% 3.0%
First Round1.1% 0.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 48 - 108 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 45   @ Marquette L 56-84 0.4%   
  Nov 27, 2020 8   @ Wisconsin L 45-78 0.1%   
  Nov 29, 2020 71   @ Iowa St. L 57-83 1%    
  Dec 02, 2020 80   @ Northwestern L 52-77 1%    
  Dec 05, 2020 52   @ Saint Louis L 51-79 1%    
  Dec 09, 2020 219   @ Arkansas St. L 60-74 11%    
  Dec 12, 2020 210   @ Tulane L 59-73 10%    
  Dec 21, 2020 2   @ Baylor L 47-83 0.1%   
  Jan 02, 2021 348   Mississippi Valley W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 09, 2021 344   Alabama St. W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 11, 2021 343   Alabama A&M W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 16, 2021 262   @ Southern L 58-70 15%    
  Jan 18, 2021 334   @ Alcorn St. L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 23, 2021 237   Texas Southern L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 25, 2021 302   Prairie View L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 30, 2021 316   @ Grambling St. L 61-69 26%    
  Feb 01, 2021 300   @ Jackson St. L 59-69 21%    
  Feb 06, 2021 344   @ Alabama St. L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 08, 2021 343   @ Alabama A&M L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 13, 2021 262   Southern L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 15, 2021 334   Alcorn St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 20, 2021 237   @ Texas Southern L 66-79 14%    
  Feb 22, 2021 302   @ Prairie View L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 27, 2021 316   Grambling St. L 64-66 45%    
  Mar 01, 2021 300   Jackson St. L 62-66 38%    
  Mar 06, 2021 348   @ Mississippi Valley W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.1 5.2 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.1 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.0 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.1 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 3.3 0.2 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 2.9 5.4 7.8 10.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 10.5 8.4 6.4 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 94.7% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-4 86.8% 1.5    1.2 0.2
13-5 71.7% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
12-6 54.3% 2.4    1.6 0.8 0.0
11-7 36.1% 2.3    1.3 0.9 0.1
10-8 19.4% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
9-9 5.3% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Total 11.6% 11.6 7.5 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 33.1% 33.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 19.3% 19.3% 16.0 0.1 0.2
15-3 0.9% 24.7% 24.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
14-4 1.7% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.4
13-5 2.8% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.3 2.5
12-6 4.4% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.5 3.9
11-7 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.0
10-8 8.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.4 8.0
9-9 10.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.4 10.1
8-10 12.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.0
7-11 12.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.0
6-12 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.2
5-13 10.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-14 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-15 5.4% 5.4
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.0 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%